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  • 给汽车分时租赁热泼盆冷水,也许它从根上就走偏了 有态度

    北方IT网 / 36氪 / 2018-01-23 19:16
    毕竟它要解决的问题不是汽车公司的库存和销路,而是城市交通。

    继打车应用和共享单车之后,汽车分时租赁,这个介于租车和打车应用之间的服务,正成为出行领域投资者追捧的新宠。2017年,超过10家汽车分时租赁平台获得风险投资,包括汽车、互联网在内的不少大公司也开始入场。

    另一方面,它像不少创业热点一样,虽然在投资圈火热,对许多消费者来说却是陌生的。阻碍它获得认可的一个重要原因可能是——现在的服务不太符合中国城市的需求。

    不妨来看看这些分时租赁项目的一些矛盾之处,尤其是车型。

    2018年1月18日,神州租车宣布启动分时租赁业务,首批落地4座一线城市。但它的运营车辆大都是宝马、奥迪、路虎等高档汽车。在此之前,宝马也宣布将推出自营的、以宝马车型为主的分时租赁服务,主打“高端市场”。

    这是个奇怪的决策,汽车分时租赁的最大作用是提供便利、灵活的出行方式,豪华感和驾驶体验并不重要。从运营角度看,尽量选择统一、廉价的汽车也有利于控制成本。这也是为什么car2go(由戴姆勒公司自己运营,使用Smart轿车,为数不多实现盈亏平衡的分时租赁服务)等品牌都选择小型轿车。

    新汽车观察 | 给汽车分时租赁热泼盆冷水,也许它从根上就走偏了

    另一种矛盾的做法是选择电动车为主力车型。听上去有些意外?毕竟在中国,汽车分时租赁总是与新能源车结合在一起。目前国内最大的汽车分时租赁公司环球车享,提供的就全是纯电动车,它的投资方是上汽集团和上海市嘉定区政府旗下的公司。

    问题是,在现在的技术下,纯电动车意味着它必须停在有充电桩的车位上。这带来两个麻烦:它无法停在大多数停车位,这大大降低了便利度;运营公司必须为它配套足够多的车位(一般一辆车配1.5个车位),租用车位是笔大开销,还制约了扩张速度。换个角度,你可以把纯电动车的分时租赁看成有桩公共自行车,它们被摩拜和ofo击溃的故事不用再复述了吧?

    事实上,在欧洲和美国,运营相对成熟的汽车分时租赁项目,都采用传统汽油车。唯一采用纯电动车的项目,法国的Autolib,也仅限在巴黎城区,而且巴黎为它建造了上千个路边专用充电桩,中国的城市显然无法满足这一需求。

    无论是采用高档汽车还是采用纯电动车,背后的原因都是一致的:这些项目的投资方只有这些车。

    神州进入分时租赁,利用的是闲置租赁车辆,而这些高档车的闲置时间更长,与其放着,不如设定一个低廉的价格,让这些车产生价值。这也意味着,神州不会all in分时租赁,神州董事长陆正耀自己明确表示,运营的规模将以盈利为标准,不会盲目扩大规模。

    另一边,以环球车享为首的创业公司之所以选择纯电动车,也是因为它们的股东本身就生产纯电动车。上汽荣威e50是环球车享的主营车型,而最近进入这一领域的摩拜,也选择与获得一汽投资的一家纯电动车创业公司新特合作。在政府补贴新能源车的背景下,它们能以更低的成本获得这些车的使用权和运营资格。

    实际上,全球大多数汽车分时租赁项目,都是由造车公司或者拥有庞大车队的租车公司支持,比如宝马、奔驰、通用、上汽或神州。对它们来说,分时租赁本质上是一个提高资产利用率的业务。上汽的高管就曾明确表示,在新能源车时代,分时租赁公司是一个重要的销售渠道。

    而独立购买或租赁车辆,独立运营的分时租赁平台,大多亏损,诸如友友、EZZY等创业公司都已经倒闭。陆正耀就在接受媒体采访时说,如果一个公司只做汽车分时租赁,很难财务平衡。

    这背后的一个根本悖论是,这些分时租赁服务的决策出发点,不是消费者的需求,而是自己的需求和条件——提升自己车队的运营效率、为自己的新能源车寻找使用场景,这些都不是一个服务在市场上成立的基础。真正的基础应该是消费者的真实需求。

    现状是,分时租赁在中国城市中的需求可能不那么大。

    在一二线城市,你很难找到一个公共交通+共享单车+打车服务覆盖不到的出行场景。另一方面,分时租赁在欧洲得以生存的一个基本条件是城市路边可停车。而在中国的大城市,停车位大都在写字楼或专门的停车场,而不是路边,机动车保有量的暴涨让停车位的价格变得昂贵。

    目前在上海,分时租赁最流行的区域是嘉定,那里公共交通不够发达,土地资源相对宽松,能够建立足够的纯电动车停车位,当然别忘了,它的政府是环球车享的重要支持者,

    或许,就像上海的嘉定,大城市的郊区,和二三线城市,可能是分时租赁的潜在市场,但这个需求量非常有限,考虑到那里的市民还十分向往拥有私家车,分时租赁取代私家车的进程也不会那么快到来。

    而另一个可行的场景或许是封闭的园区、校区,在那里停车方便,人们也经常需要去好几个地方,分时租赁的效率不错,但这显然不是一个大众场景。

    简而言之,目前的中国城市对分时租赁并不友好。

    现实也证明了这一点,car2go在重庆运营者提供过一个简单的数字,以目前重庆的收费方式(同时对时间和里程收费,价格略高于出租车),每辆车每天使用4次,能够覆盖日常运营的费用,包括停车位租赁、后台运营、车辆折旧等,不包括车辆本身的成本。而每辆车每天4次,也基本是一个分时租赁平台在中国单个城市能取得的最佳成绩。

    如果把视线放长,在未来的自动驾驶时代,分时租赁的价值会更少。如果不需要你自己开车,那么分时租赁这个服务本身就不存在了,它会被自动驾驶的出租车取代,毕竟时间成本越来越被重视。在如今已经开始试验的未来城市样板中,比如美国科罗拉多州和松下公司在丹佛的合作,城市交通将由互联和自动的汽车、轨道电车覆盖,没有分时租赁的用武之地。

    不论是现在中国城市的现状,或是畅想未来城市的图景,留给分时租赁的空间都不那么大。如果认可这一点,对于分时租赁的投资或许应该谨慎一些,毕竟,任何交通出行领域的创新,其目的都应是改善城市交通,而不是解决自己的库存。

     

    ( 来源:36氪



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